Increased efficiency leads to increased energy and material consumption

Let’s assume that the developers and users of AI have good intentions. Why even good intentions can have negative consequences can be illustrated with the Jevons Paradox.¹ Jevons was an English economist who looked at the more efficient use of coal due to James Watt’s steam engine. During the Industrial Revolution in the late 19th century, coal consumption increased immensely.

More efficient use of a raw material that takes 250 million to 350 million years to form and thus cannot be replenished in our lifetime seems to be a positive development at first glance. Thomas Newcomens’ previous model used much more coal with less power. Jevons’ analysis found that more efficient use of the resource caused the cost of the resource to fall, thereby expanding its use to other uses.

Thus, more efficient use led to increased consumption rather than decreased consumption. Over a hundred years later, with fatal effects on the environment, and many wars fought over diminishing raw materials and resources, we should be smarter. AI means a rapid increase in efficiency, which also means a rapid increase in the consumption of energy and materials.

Even with a more “sustainable” power supply, total energy and material consumption will increase because increased efficiency also means total increased use. A hundred years ago, when resources seemed infinite, a blind spot to the consequences in the first and second instance (second-order effect) was understandable. With the knowledge we have today, however, a blind spot to the consequences of our actions is just naive or worse, ignorant. Just because digital tools don’t create big clouds of smoke or steam doesn’t mean they don’t exist. A study from the University of Massachusetts Amherst states that training a single AI model can generate as much carbon emissions as five cars in their entire lifetimes.²

AI is not just another tool. AI is a technology with exponential growth and high optional uses. While steam engines could only be built and used by a few, AI can be used by just about anyone.

ChatGPT is the fastest-growing consumer internet app of all time, according to UBS.³ Instagram took two and a half years to be actively used by over 100 million people every month, TikTok took nine months, and ChatGPT only two months. By January 2023, 13 million people were using ChatGPT every day. Meanwhile, AI is integrated into just about every piece of software, and new AI-based apps are emerging daily.

Branding is the communication from companies to consumers. It (for a big part) defines the visual communication of our public analog and digital spaces. With AI we have a tool in our hands that can communicate with unprecedented efficiency and effectiveness. We need to be aware of this. Do we want to co-create an unstoppable seduction machine with uncalculable costs and consequences?

If we look only at ourselves, then the negative and positive consequences of our actions may seem of little relevance. But when we look at ourselves in a larger system, we realize that our behavior can also affect others in that system, precisely because we are part of the system. AI, as well as the decision to use it or not with criteria still to be developed by us, is an opportunity for new planet-centered perspectives and behaviors.